Free tool

Expected Value Calculator

Estimate whether a single bet is worth taking by combining probability, odds, and stake into EV and ROI.

Core formula

EV = p(win) x profit - p(loss) x stake

Evaluate a single bet

Estimated win probability (%)Decimal oddsStake (AUD)

Output

Expected value$9.08

Expected ROI9.08%

Profit if win$102.00

Model edge9.08%

Positive EV does not automatically mean a bet is worth taking if it stresses a weak bookmaker account.

Use Notes

Useful for promos, derivatives, and slow-moving soft-book prices.

Negative EV is still useful sometimes if it protects account health.